A comparison of the attractiveness of flowering plant blossoms versus attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) in western Kenya.

Attractive Targeted Sugar Baits (ATSB) have been demonstrated to result in significant reductions in malaria vector numbers in areas of scarce vegetation cover such as in Mali and Israel, but it is not clear whether such an effect can be replicated in environments where mosquitoes have a wide range of options for sugar resources. The current study evaluated the attractiveness of the predominant flowering plants of Asembo Siaya County, western Kenya in comparison to an ATSB developed by Westham Co. Sixteen of the most common flowering plants in the study area were selected and evaluated for relative attractiveness to malaria vectors in semi-field structures. Six of the most attractive flowers were compared to determine the most attractive to local Anopheles mosquitoes. The most attractive plant was then compared to different versions of ATSB. In total, 56,600 Anopheles mosquitoes were released in the semi-field structures. From these, 5150 mosquitoes (2621 males and 2529 females) of An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. gambiae were recaptured on the attractancy traps. Mangifera indica was the most attractive sugar source for all three species while Hyptis suaveolens and Tephrosia vogelii were the least attractive plants to the mosquitoes. Overall, ATSB version 1.2 was significantly more attractive compared to both ATSB version 1.1 and Mangifera indica. Mosquitoes were differentially attracted to various natural plants in western Kenya and ATSB. The observation that ATSB v1.2 was more attractive to local Anopheles mosquitoes than the most attractive natural sugar source indicates that this product may be able to compete with natural sugar sources in western Kenya and suggests this product may have the potential to impact mosquito populations in the field.

Can Regenerative Agriculture increase national soil carbon stocks? Simulated country-scale adoption of reduced tillage, cover cropping, and ley-arable integration using RothC.

Adopting Regenerative Agriculture (RA) practices on temperate arable land can increase soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration without reducing crop yields. RA is therefore receiving much attention as a climate change mitigation strategy. However, estimating the potential change in national soil carbon stocks following adoption of RA practices is required to determine its suitability for this. Here, we use a well-validated model of soil carbon turnover (RothC) to simulate adoption of three regenerative practices (cover cropping, reduced tillage intensity and incorporation of a grass-based ley phase into arable rotations) across arable land in Great Britain (GB). We develop a modelling framework which calibrates RothC using studies of these measures from a recent systematic review, estimating the proportional increase in carbon inputs to the soil compared to conventional practice, before simulating adoption across GB. We find that cover cropping would on average increase SOC stocks by 10 t·ha-1 within 30 years of adoption across GB, potentially sequestering 6.5 megatonnes of carbon dioxide per year (MtCO2·y-1). Ley-arable systems could increase SOC stocks by 3 or 16 t·ha-1, potentially providing 2.2 or 10.6 MtCO2·y-1 of sequestration over 30 years, depending on the length of the ley-phase (one and four years, respectively, in these scenarios). In contrast, our modelling approach finds little change in soil carbon stocks when practising reduced tillage intensity. Our results indicate that adopting RA practices could make a meaningful contribution to GB agriculture reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions despite practical constraints to their uptake.

Abandoned metal mines and their impact on receiving waters: A case study from Southwest England.

Historic mine sites are a major source of contamination to terrestrial and river environments. To demonstrate the importance of determining the significance of point and diffuse metal contamination and the related bioavailability of the metals present from abandoned mines a case study has been carried out. The study provides a quantitative assessment of a historic mine site, Wheal Betsy, southwest England, and its contribution to non-compliance with Water Framework Directive (WFD) Environmental Quality Standards (EQS) for Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn. Surface water and sediment samples showed significant negative environmental impacts even taking account of the bioavailability of the metal present, with lead concentration in the stream sediment up to 76 times higher than the Canadian sediment guidelines 'Probable Effect Level'. Benthic invertebrates showed a decline in species richness adjacent to the mine site with lead and cadmium the main cause. The main mine drainage adit was the single most significant source of metal (typically 50% of metal load from the area, but 88% for Ni) but the mine spoil tips north and south of the adit input added together discharged roughly an equivalent loading of metal with the exception of Ni. The bioavailability of metal in the spoil tips exhibited differing spatial patterns owing to varying ambient soil physico-chemistry. The data collected is essential to provide a clear understanding of the contamination present as well as its mobility and bioavailability, in order to direct the decision making process regarding remediation options and their likely effectiveness.

Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

Predicting bird phenology from space: satellite-derived vegetation green-up signal uncovers spatial variation in phenological synchrony between birds and their environment.

Population-level studies of how tit species (Parus spp.) track the changing phenology of their caterpillar food source have provided a model system allowing inference into how populations can adjust to changing climates, but are often limited because they implicitly assume all individuals experience similar environments. Ecologists are increasingly using satellite-derived data to quantify aspects of animals' environments, but so far studies examining phenology have generally done so at large spatial scales. Considering the scale at which individuals experience their environment is likely to be key if we are to understand the ecological and evolutionary processes acting on reproductive phenology within populations. Here, we use time series of satellite images, with a resolution of 240 m, to quantify spatial variation in vegetation green-up for a 385-ha mixed-deciduous woodland. Using data spanning 13 years, we demonstrate that annual population-level measures of the timing of peak abundance of winter moth larvae (Operophtera brumata) and the timing of egg laying in great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) is related to satellite-derived spring vegetation phenology. We go on to show that timing of local vegetation green-up significantly explained individual differences in tit reproductive phenology within the population, and that the degree of synchrony between bird and vegetation phenology showed marked spatial variation across the woodland. Areas of high oak tree (Quercus robur) and hazel (Corylus avellana) density showed the strongest match between remote-sensed vegetation phenology and reproductive phenology in both species. Marked within-population variation in the extent to which phenology of different trophic levels match suggests that more attention should be given to small-scale processes when exploring the causes and consequences of phenological matching. We discuss how use of remotely sensed data to study within-population variation could broaden the scale and scope of studies exploring phenological synchrony between organisms and their environment.

Remote assessment of locally important ecological features across landscapes: how representative of reality?

The local ecological footprinting tool (LEFT) uses globally available databases, modeling, and algorithms to, remotely assess locally important ecological features across landscapes based on five criteria: biodiversity (beta-diversity), vulnerability (threatened species), fragmentation, connectivity, and resilience. This approach can be applied to terrestrial landscapes at a 300-m resolution within a given target area. Input is minimal (latitude and longitude) and output is a computer-generated report and series of maps that both individually and synthetically depict the relative value of each ecological criteria. A key question for any such tool, however, is how representative is the remotely obtained output compared to what is on the ground. Here, we present the results from comparing remotely- vs. field-generated outputs from the LEFT tool on two distinct study areas for beta-diversity and distribution of threatened species (vulnerability), the two fields computed by LEFT for which such an approach is feasible. The comparison method consists of a multivariate measure of similarity between two fields based on discrete wavelet transforms, and reveals consistent agreement across a wide range of spatial scales. These results suggest that remote assessment tools such as LEFT hold great potential for determining key ecological features across landscapes and for being utilized in preplanning biodiversity assessment tools.

Applying a 3.0 transformation framework to guide large-scale health system reform.

Implementation of the Affordable Care Act is unleashing historic new efforts aimed at reforming the US health system. Many important incremental improvements are under way, yet there is a growing recognition that more transformative changes are necessary if the health care system is to do a better job of optimizing population health. While the concept of the Triple Aim-dedicated to improving the experience of care, the health of populations, and lowering per capita costs of care-has been used to help health care providers and health care systems focus their efforts on costs, quality, and outcomes, it does not provide a roadmap for a new system. In this article we describe the 3.0 Transformation Framework we developed to stimulate thinking and support the planning and development of the new roadmap for the next generation of the US health care system. With a focus on optimizing population health over the life span, the framework suggests how a system designed to better manage chronic disease care could evolve into a system designed to enhance population health. We describe how the 3.0 Transformation Framework has been used and applied in national, state, and local settings, and we suggest potential next steps for its wider application and use.

JHPPL workshop on Medicaid fiscal and governance issues: objectives and themes.

At a November 2012 workshop, state health policy officials, other Medicaid and insurance exchange practitioners, and health policy researchers discussed issues surrounding the implementation and sustainability of Medicaid expansion and insurance exchange coordination under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). Foremost were concerns about (1) intergovernmental relations (states experiencing uncertain information, lack of coordination among federal agencies, and limited resources to take on new responsibilities under the PPACA), and (2) policy design (new issues such as Medicaid exchange coordination on top of preexisting Medicaid challenges). JHPPL has proposed the creation of a research network to develop policy options and share strategies and best practices.

Projecting the impact of the Affordable Care Act on California.

The Affordable Care Act is the most fundamental legislative transformation of the US health care system in forty years. This analysis estimates that the act will provide health insurance for an additional 3.4 million people in California in 2016. This will mean that nearly 96 percent of documented residents of California under age sixty-five will be insured. Enrollment in Medi-Cal, the state's Medicaid program, is expected to increase by 1.7 million people, while 4.0 million people are expected to enroll in the state's planned new health insurance exchange. Employer-sponsored insurance and spending on health insurance will decline slightly. Low-income households will experience substantial financial benefits, but families at the highest income levels will pay more.

Prospects for health impact assessment in the United States: new and improved environmental impact assessment or something different?

Health impact assessment (HIA) has been advanced as a means of bringing potential health impacts to the attention of policy makers, particularly in sectors where health impacts may not otherwise be considered. This article examines lessons for HIA in the United States from the related and relatively well-developed field of environmental impact assessment (EIA). We reviewed the EIA literature and conducted twenty phone interviews with EIA professionals. Successes of EIA cited by respondents included integration of environmental goals into decision making, improved planning, and greater transparency and public involvement. Reported shortcomings included the length and complexity of EIA documents, limited and adversarial public participation, and an emphasis on procedure over substance. Presently, EIAs consider few, if any, health outcomes. Respondents differed on the prospects for HIA. Most agreed that HIA could contribute to EIA in several areas, including assessment of cumulative impacts and impacts to environmental justice. Reasons given for not incorporating HIA into EIA were uncertainties about interpreting estimated health impacts, that EIA documents would become even longer and more complicated, and that HIA would gain little from the procedural and legal emphasis in EIA. We conclude that for HIA to advance, whether as part of or separate from EIA, well-formulated methodologies need to be developed and tested in real-world situations. When possible, HIA should build on the methods that have been utilized successfully in EIA. The most fruitful avenue is demonstration projects that test, refine, and demonstrate different methods and models to maximize their utility and acceptance.